731,000

"Most people who watch wrestling on television never would think of buying a PPV, going to the arena, or spending much of any time thinking about pro wrestling except during the hour or two of escapist entertainment they spend watching it each week." - Dave Meltzer, in a mid-1996 Wrestling Observer Newsletter

So the number WWE released today for their WWE Network subscribers was lower than even the most optimistic projection, a total of 731,000.

While their international launch into 170 new countries (UK not included) pulled in 286,000 new subscribers, they lost a total of 255,000 subscribers at the same time, leaving their efforts over the last three months at an improvement of 31,000.

The breakdown is listed at 703,000 subscribers in the US, and 28,000 internationally, which tells me that, as expected, most of the people who wanted it in those foreign countries just signed up to the Network before under a US address before it was "technically" available to them.

The six month commitment idea has been totally scrapped, and apparently they are giving away a free month in November. Rumours that Vince McMahon re-hired Jim Ross then fired him to make himself feel better are unconfirmed.

To spell things out clearly, WWE needed to be at 1.1 million subscribers to even get to the point they were at before the launch of the Network by doing regular, tried and tested Pay-Per-View, and that was only after massive budget cuts, as the original break even number was 1.5 million.

Look, I'm not predicting eternal doom for this thing, over time it may be worth it if the slow trickle of newcomers elevates the number. And hey, the UK is the segment of the world most willing to spend big money on WWE, so when we get the Network things should pick up a little. But the point I made in my column three months ago on this subject has now been validated. On a worldwide basis, there are no floods of people dying to spend money on WWE, and there haven't been for a very long time.

The quote at the start of this piece isn't some hidden gem of wrestling knowledge, that's an accurate analysis of the wrestling business since the beginning of television. The bullshit statistics they were looking at in the beginning to gauge whether or not this pig would fly have no bearing on reality. They inflated the number of television viewers they had with their usual McMathemathics, Voodoo, and just plain making it up. It's one thing to spin doctor figures to project success to the outside world, who will take something at face value and never really ask questions. It's another to base the company's future on them.

I'll say what I said in August one more time. The WWE has never convinced more than 1.25 million people worldwide to spend money on a wrestling television product, and that's a one off, special event with a unique attraction, and it's happened less than a handful of times in history.

The WWE Network has absolutely zero appeal to casual fans. None. Casual fans, as Meltzer said, are there to watch a couple of hours of escapist entertainment, and see what's happening on the wrestling show. That's it. The goal is always to hook as many of those casual viewers into buyers as possible, and make them drop some cash on an event you've made them want to see. Those casuals don't give a fuck about having more wrestling than they could possibly watch at the push of a button.
The lower price was supposed to turn some fringe PPV buyers into regulars, and the total number isn't horrible when you look at WWE PPV numbers in recent years. But they've been completely ignorant to reality, so here it is.

Casual fans, the ones who make the difference and create those record setting numbers, don't want archives, don't want the history of wrestling at a finger tip. They want a hot product that makes them say "you know what...I know I was going to earmark that money for Jack Daniels, but Goddamn I'd love to see what happens in that match". You do that with a great television show. You write TV to create something they want to see, and charge them for it. The only way to pull in casuals to buy the network, and get the numbers up to the level they want and need, is to get them to buy the once a month "special events", or Pay-Per-Views as we know them.

And therein lies the stupidity. If that's what makes big money, and it is, then why the hell didn't they stick to PPV where, if they could convince more people to buy, they'd make far more money than they will with this system?

Right now they probably need 2-3 million subscribers to make this a project that elevates company finances enough to justify the change. Worth the risk, because the difference would be significant. But they're not close, and honest analysis would told them they weren't going to be. Once the UK is added and WrestleMania has come and gone, their level of real growth is finished. That alone is not going to get them to 2 million.

What's the answer? Through all the corporate rhetoric, stockholder-pleasing ga-ga and delusions of real world grandeur, it's the same thing it's been for over a hundred years. Produce a TV show that makes stars and sells big matches. The problem begins and ends with Raw. Fix that, and you have a prayer.